Rising Inflation: Where Will It Go from Here?
- June 23, 2021
In March 2021, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6%, the largest one-month increase since August 2012. Over the previous 12 months, the increase was 2.6%, the highest year-over-year inflation rate since August 2018. (By contrast, inflation in 2020 was just 1.4%.) The annual increase in CPI-U — often called headline inflation — was due in part to the fact that the index dropped in March 2020, the beginning of the U.S. economic shutdown in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, the current 12-month comparison is to an unusual low point in prices. The index dropped even further in April 2020, and this "base effect" will continue to skew annual data through June. The monthly March increase, which followed a substantial 0.4% increase in February, is more indicative of the current situation. Economists expect inflation numbers to rise for some time. The question is whether they represent a temporary anomaly or the beginning of a more worrisome inflationary trend.
Though all economists expect inflation numbers to rise in the near term, there are different views on the potential long-term effects.
SPENCER NURSE
Title:FINANCIAL ADVISOR, MANAGING DIRECTOR-INVESTMENTS
The Nurse Team has more than 50 years of combined experience in financial planning strategies. As of May 2021, the Team manages over $200 million in client assets. The team focuses on risk-adjusted investment management when assisting clients in addressing their retirement, educational, and philanthropic goals. Spencer and his team take direct responsibility of investment management for client portfolios. In the evolving markets and changes in clients’ lives, the team focuses on creating value based strategies that are tailored to client’s specific situation at various stages in life.
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